It’s a week after the midterm election and we’re already seeing all sorts of discussion about who is and is not running for President. I expect both parties to have primaries regardless of whether Trump remains in office or not.
In 2003 I spent the spring and summer watching the Democratic candidates. In August I analyzed it all and settled on Howard Dean as the one that was right for the time. I found the local Meetup group and joined the campaign. I knew I had to do more than just vote. I’ve been going ever since. I guess it is time to start that process for 2020. I’m sure my thoughts will evolve as the campaign takes shape.
The Washington Post ran an article the other day with a list of who they think the top 15 contenders on the Democratic side are. They also included some “other mentions.” It’s as good a starting place as any. From the Post:
Off the previous list: Eric Holder, Oprah Winfrey, Chris Murphy, Mitch Landrieu, Andrew M. Cuomo
Honorable mentions: Steve Bullock, Jason Kander, Pete Buttigieg, Eric Garcetti, Julián Castro, Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, Seth Moulton, Martin O’Malley, Eric Swalwell, Jay Inslee, Howard Schultz
15. Rep. John Delaney (Md.):
14. Michael Avenatti:
13. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick:
12. Hillary Clinton:
11. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.):
10. Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe:
9. Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg:
8. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Tex.):
7. Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio):
6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.):
5. Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.):
4. Former vice president Joe Biden
3. Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.):
2. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.):
1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.):
My preliminary assessment:
Eric Holder– not the worst guy in the world but not a chance he wins and not a chance he gets my support after his tenure at DOJ under Obama.
Oprah Winfrey – no. Fine woman, capable businesswoman, but no.
Chris Murphy– Senator from Connecticut. Not a bad choice. My sister that lives there really likes him. Not quite as progressive as a couple other options but not bad either. I would consider him at least initially.
Mitch Landrieu– who? At least, that is what most of the country will say. Former Mayor of New Orleans. I gather he is better than his sister but Mayor-to-President just isn’t going to happen (yeah, yeah, yeah, I know all about Trump, it still isn’t going to happen) and I’m not into wasting my time and energy.
Andrew Cuomo– HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…No
Steve Bullock– Governor of Montana, I gather he has made noise about possibly running. I don’t know enough about him but looking at the section on his political views and record on his wiki page he seems to be taking all the right stances except for supporting coal which “is an important industry in Montana.” Worth keeping an eye on.
Jason Kander– former House Representative and Secretary of State for Missouri. Seems to have a lot of promise but dropped out of a Mayoral race in October citing PTSD and depression (Afghanistan veteran). Wish him well and perhaps we’ll see him again sometime in the future.
Pete Buttigieg– who? This is the third time I’ve had to look him up. South Bend, Indiana Mayor. He has apparently done a good job there but seriously, South Bend Mayor to President? Next.
Eric Garcetti– Mayor of Los Angeles. Ok, if any Mayor can do it then they will have to be from New York, Chicago (surprised and pleased Rahm isn’t here), Los Angeles, or Houston. But even they will have slim chances. President Giuliani anyone? I’ll wait for our California friends to weigh in on his merits as a politician.
Julián Castro– former Mayor of San Antonio and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Obama. He has apparently stated he is “likely” to run. Only Latino candidate on this list. His twin brother is a House Representative. He’s been talked up since his days as Mayor. Reportedly considered as VP to Hillary. I’m not sure how much of that is simply hope for a great Latino candidate to emerge. He really hasn’t done much to distinguish himself from what I can tell but we’ll keep an eye on him. Most likely a VP candidate again.
Tim Ryan– Ohio Representative. He occasionally makes news as someone that speaks his mind. He is a moderate and a non-starter for me. House Representatives generally don’t do very well. But some use a run as a stepping stone to Senator or Governor or VP. I suspect that is what his aim is.
Tom Steyer– money can’t buy you love Tom. Stick to advocacy work. You’re needed there.
John Hickenlooper– out-going Colorado Governor. Highly thought of, middle of the road kind of guy. He’ll get some love as the kind of mid-America moderate pundits love. I don’t think he would be bad but is not the progressive I prefer.
Jeff Merkley– Oregon Senator. Jeff IS the kind of progressive I prefer. I have doubts about his ability to get things done but will have to take a long hard look at him if he decides to run.
Seth Moulton– nope. The last thing we need is a DLC/Blue Dog type.
Martin O’Malley– former Maryland Governor. Poor Martin never stood a chance between Hillary and Bernie. I suspect he hoped to do well enough to be her VP. If he runs again he’s going to have to figure out how to get people to pay attention to him. He’s also going to have to figure out how to answer for the criminal justice issues during his time as Mayor of Baltimore.
Eric Swalwell – House Representative from California. Not sure why he is considering running unless it is to gather more name recognition to increase his chances at a future run for Senator or Governor. I don’t think people will get much mileage out of that sort of play this cycle. Democrats are too laser focused on winning to care for also-ran’s.
Jay Inslee– Washington Governor, former House Representative, current chair of the Democratic Governors Association. Inslee is worth watching. Came in as a “New Democrat” but has compiled a pretty decent record. Perhaps some west coast friends can shed more light on him than I can.
Howard Schultz – Is this a joke? Wrong party buddy. Rich businessman is not our cup of coffee.
Ok, on to their top 15:
Rep. John Delaney of Maryland – he’s been running for a year or more already. Pro-business, centrist democrat. Nope. Next.
Michael Avenatti– nope.
Deval Patrick– former Massachusetts Governor. A lot to like about Deval. Growing up in the Taylor homes on Chicago’s southside to become Governor of a state is impressive as hell. He currently works for Bain Capital which steals a lot of love away from him for me. Apparently being urged by a lot of Obama people to run. We’ll see.
Hillary Clinton– No. I think she got robbed and I understand why a lot of people would still support her but we really do need to move on. If either she or Bernie run it will be a complete disaster for us. Regardless of whether justified or not.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota – I really need to learn more about her. I’ve heard nothing but good but I also can’t think of a single thing she has lead on. I don’t identify her with anything. Perhaps being from the northeast and hearing mostly about Gillibrand, Warren, and Harris has drowned her out. Progressive Punch has her fairly well down the list of Democratic Senators but still in respectable territory. So, I am open to learning more.
Terry McAuliffe– former Virginia Governor. No. He was much more impressive as Governor and earned a little more positive feeling from me but I cannot disassociate him from his DLC days. No.
Michael Bloomberg– No. Not a chance in hell. Like Tom Steyer, I hope he sticks to advocacy work where his money on the gun issue is much needed. No, no, no. Thankfully, I am confident the Democratic primary electorate will also say no regardless of money. Wrong party.
Beto O’Rourke– Seriously? House Representative from Texas and losing Senate candidate in an exciting campaign. Reminds some of JFK. Flavor of the month for those that like to fall in love with their candidates. Impressive guy that did extremely well against hated opposition… but lost. I hope people get over this tendency to obsess over their candidates and consider them rationally instead.
Sherrod Brown– Senator from Ohio. Progressive stalwart. Outperforms his state more than any other Senator according to progressive punch. Like Merkley, I’ll have to take a good hard look at him if he runs. A friend asked my reaction to today’s article saying he was considering running. That is what prompted this first take on the candidates. I replied, “He’s a possibility.”
Kirsten Gillibrand– Senator from New York. I have to start out admitting personal bias. I have known Kirsten since we interviewed her for a possible run for congress in 2004. She impressed the hell out of me. Competence, intelligence, obvious political knowledge about what it took to run a successful campaign. I committed myself that day to helping her win when she did run two years later. I busted my hump for her in 2006 and to this day it is one of the top highlights of my time in politics. If Kirsten runs she is in my top two and the one that all others have to beat to get my support. I will bust my hump for her once again. Oh yeah, she’d make a great President too. I’ve really enjoyed her career to date and fully support all her work on behalf of the women of this country. I know a lot of people are pissed about her part in the Al Franken mess but I really think people should be more pissed at Franken for Franken’s actions. Kirsten, like all politicians, like all human beings, is not perfect. But I have seen few politicians I would put anywhere near her territory and I’ve met a lot of them over the last 15 years.
Cory Booker– Senator from New Jersey. I sort of met Cory boarding an airplane in Newark on our way to Denver a couple years ago. He was blocking the aisle putting his stuff away with his back to me. I stood and waited. When he turned around to take his seat and saw me standing there he apologized for holding me up very friendly and politely. No attitude at all. Took me until I got to my seat to realize why he looked familiar to me. That brief little exchange sits very well with me. His record with pharma and the financial industry does not. He has posted a strong progressive record in the Senate so far. He’s worth considering. But he’s got to convince me he won’t be in bed with big business.
Joe Biden– Nope. He IS in bed with the financial industry and always has been. Former Senator from MBNA. Lots to like about Joe but nope.
Kamala Harris– Senator from California. Another candidate I will have to study closer. An African-American woman from California with charisma must be taken very seriously. When I first heard of her it was all praise as she won the California Attorney General position. But since then I have heard complaints about her record, or lack thereof, on criminal justice reform. I don’t know details so again, perhaps our California friends can weigh in with more on her pros and cons. Regardless, she must be taken very seriously if she runs.
Bernie Sanders– I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary… but no. Bernie lost for good reasons. He never did what it took to reach out to minority communities. He was great at sticking to his economic message and I strongly agree with his economic message, but he doesn’t get it on race. He won’t win this time either and he shouldn’t. As with Hillary and Biden, we all need to move on.
Elizabeth Warren– Massachusetts Senator. Warren is the other member of my top two going into this thing. It seems certain she is running. I am open to things changing but for me it is between the two of them until someone else changes my mind. Warren is intelligent and capable, two things I value greatly. She is articulate. Had she responded to Run Warren, Run she would be President today and we’d have avoided both the Hillary/Bernie rancor and the current mess in the White House.
In Summary:
Gillibrand and Warren are my easy top two choices going in. Harris, Brown, Klobuchar, Merkley, are all candidates I need to take a closer look at to make up for my greater familiarity with Warren and Gillibrand. A few others (Booker, Patrick, Murphy, Bullock, Inslee come to mind) might be worth paying attention to should they catch some fire. Most of these folks I suspect will be out before they ever get in and others will go by the wayside quickly. It’s a huge field but it will be clear before long who the real players are. If I had to wager a guess now, I would say those players are Harris, Warren, and Gillibrand. I am however, open to a draft ACW movement. Let me know.