•OK-Gov: Polling out of Oklahoma this year has been spotty but nevertheless quite alluring. Over the summer, a trio of polls found GOP Gov. Mary Fallin under 50 percent—including one from a GOP pollster—despite the Sooner State's strong Republican bent. Was there a chance for an extraordinary Democratic upset?
A post-Labor Day survey from SoonerPoll.com seemed to put the kibosh on that notion, with Fallin leading Democrat Joe Dorman by a healthier 50-32 spread, her largest lead to date. But now a new internal poll from Dorman's campaign, conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, presents a totally different picture, with Fallin ahead just 47-45. The governor has an underwater 42-46 job approval rating while Dorman remains in positive territory at 39-25.
And that's in spite of RGA attack ads predictably tying Dorman to Obama (and even accusing him of voting to give tuition breaks to "illegals"—seriously). But the very fact these ads exist is another data point suggesting this race is more interesting than you'd otherwise expect. In fact, it turns out the RGA has now shelled out more than $200,000 hammering Dorman, money they'd probably prefer not to be spending in dark red Oklahoma.
Dorman's poll may be on the optimistic side, but let's see if Fallin responses with any contradictory numbers of her own. Whether she does or doesn't, though, there's enough here to merit putting this race up on the big board, so we're moving the contest from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. It's been a strange cycle. It might just get stranger still.