Leading Off:
•NY-11: There were a ton of polls released over the weekend, but one still managed to stand out from the crowd. Siena finds Republican Rep. Michael Grimm leading Democrat Domenic Recchia 53-34, a huge improvement from Grimm's already remarkable 44-40 lead in September.
When Grimm was indicted in late April for fraud, some Democrats imagined New York's 11th would be an easy pickup, particularly after Grimm's fundraising dried up to almost nothing and national Republicans showed no interest in helping him. It also didn't help that in late January, Grimm had threatened to "break" a reporter "in half" and throw him over the House balcony—all while cameras were rolling. On top of everything, this district went for Obama 52-47, and it looked like Grimm's fate was sealed. Yet here we are, with Grimm posting a 19-point lead on the eve of the election.
As we've noted before, Siena does not have a particularly good record, but Recchia's response to this poll seems to confirm that this time, they're not too far off the fairway. Not only did Recchia fail to release (or even hint at) better internal poll numbers of his own, he dismissed them by saying, "The only poll that counts is the poll on Tuesday."
We've long labeled this kind of language "loserspeak," and for good reason. As Nathan Gonzales wrote in an article on the topic, this declaration "means you are losing the race at the time and have no empirical evidence to the contrary." There is, however, one positive sign for Recchia: Early last week, the House Majority PAC announced a $1.7 million ad buy against Grimm. It's very unlikely they'd spend this much if they thought Grimm had anything resembling the kind of lead Siena just found, though we'll find out soon enough.
So how did Grimm go from looking like electoral roadkill to emerging as the favorite? As we've noted before, plenty of Staten Islanders believe Grimm when he says that the government is out to get him. This is an area that's full of voters who, rightly or wrongly, view themselves as neglected by their city, local, and national governments, and they're perfectly willing to view Grimm as the latest victim. Grimm and many of his constituents share the same chip on their collective shoulders, and the congressman has built a distinct cult of personality by stoking this resentment.
As unusual as this may seem, we saw something similar in Louisiana in 2006, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. Then-Rep. Bill Jefferson, a Democrat, faced a looming indictment on corruption charges, and voters knew it. Yet to many New Orleanians who had watched their government fail them during the storm, it looked like the feds were out to get Jefferson. Like Grimm, Jefferson was able to tap into this resentment, and he defeated a much better funded Democrat in the runoff. He only wound up losing a cycle later in an unusual low-turnout general election that took place in December.
Grimm very well may be about to pull off a similar feat, and it certainly helps him that Recchia is a very flawed candidate. Recchia started the race with a geographical disadvantage, hailing from Brooklyn rather than Staten Island; about 70 percent of voters in the 11th live on Staten Island, and plenty of them would prefer a local congressman over someone from the wrong part of the district—even if he's under indictment.
Recchia has also made a few notable gaffes, and his responses only made things worse. In a different swing district, Grimm's indictment might have rendered these flaws meaningless, but not here. Of course, Grimm could still get convicted and come under severe pressure to resign, but his trial is scheduled for after Election Day, far too late to help Recchia.
At this point, in spite of everything, Grimm has the advantage, so we're changing our race rating here from Tossup to Lean Republican.